Purdue can take a big step this week towards a Big Ten-leading 24th Big Ten title if they are able to pull off two road wins against IU and Nebraska. Meanwhile, bracketology season is heating up, so I’ll take a look at where some of the metrics and expert bracketologists see Purdue ending up.

As of February 7th

Haslametrics: #7 (#2 Offense, #73 Defense)

Kenpom: #10 (#3 Offense, #69 Defense)

Team Rankings Predictive Rankings: #11

BPI: 10

NET: 11

RPI: 9

Lunardi’s Bracketology: 3 seed in East

Jerry Palm Bracketology: Best 5 seed in Midwest

 

February 9th Bracket Preview Show (if season ended today)

  • Purdue was given the #3 in the south regional in Louisville
  • Purdue was #9 on the seed list, making them the #1 three seed
  • Since Louisville is closer to West Lafayette than the Midwest region’s host city Kansas City, Purdue was placed in the South region
  • There is more of an emphasis this year on avoiding intra-conference matchups. I.E #15 Louisville would have to play in Anaheim opposed to Kansas City (much closer) in order to avoid a Sweet 16 matchup with ACC counterpart Virginia; likewise avoiding having #16 Wisconsin and MSU in the same region
  • Top 4 seeds in each region are given priority location in order, bottom of each seed line may get unlucky (i.e #8 MSU in Anaheim, California)

 

Understanding the NET

The NET appears to have the largest impact on the selection of teams, but it’s rankings are more of a mystery than anything else, in terms of how its formula is weighted. We do know that wins and losses are sorted into four groups.

 

Group 1

(Home Wins over teams ranked 1-30, Neutral-court wins over teams ranked 1-50 and True Road wins over teams ranked 1-75)

 

Group 2

(Home Wins over teams ranked 31-75, Neutral-court wins over teams ranked 51-100 and True Road wins over teams ranked 76-135)

 

Group 3

(Home Wins over teams ranked 76-160, Neutral-court wins over teams ranked 101-200 and True Road wins over teams ranked 136-240)

 

Group 4

(Home Wins over teams ranked 161+, Neutral-court wins over teams ranked 201+ and True Road wins over teams ranked 241+)

 

These teams are ranked based on their net offensive and defensive efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted win percentage and scoring margin, but we don’t know what percent each tool is worth in the evaluation of a team’s NET ranking.

 

NCAA Team Sheets

NCAA teams are sorted on a sheet with 13 factors (see below), and just like the NET, the weight of each factor has not been published. This is likely the case in order to avoid controversial decisions and to maintain suspense for teams who otherwise would be able to calculate their seed line.

As of February 19th before IU game

Haslametrics: #8 (#4 Offense, #51 Defense)

Kenpom: #10 (#4 Offense, #53 Defense)

Team Rankings Predictive Rankings: #11

BPI: 11

NET: 12

RPI: 13

Lunardi’s Bracketology: 3 seed in South

Jerry Palm’s Bracketology: Last 4 seed in West

 

With a game coming up later tonight against IU, Purdue can only hurt themselves and resume more than they can help it. Purdue can slip up once and still expect at least a share for the big ten title, but losing twice would make for a far more dramatic route to the title.

Purdue still has to play at IU, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Northwestern in addition to home contests versus a surprisingly hot Illini team and the never easy Buckeyes.

I expect that the Boilers will finish the conference slate at 16-4, with a loss at the Gophers or pesky Huskers and likely be crowned Big Ten champions for the 24th time in school history- potentially outright. Doing so would almost certainly secure a top 3 seed in the NCAA’s, and with a Big Ten Tournament title, likely a #2 seed.

 

As of February 20th after IU Win (48-46)

Haslametrics: #8 (#6 Offense, #38 Defense)

Kenpom: #10 (#5 Offense, #37 Defense)

Team Rankings Predictive Rankings: #11

BPI: 11

NET: 12

RPI: 12

Lunardi’s Bracketology: 3 seed in South

Jerry Palm’s Bracketology: Last 4 seed in West

SB Nation’s “Blogging the Bracket” Bracketology: Last 3 seed in South (Louisville)

Bracket Matrix (117 Bracketology’s averaged): Average seed is 3.43

Quick Look Ahead

Purdue showed a lot of grit in it’s win in its hardest road atmosphere yet-Bloomington’s Assembly Hall-and now faces another road test against a Nebraska squad who since a 19 point loss at Mackey Arena on February 9th, have won two home games over Minnesota and Northwestern, before inexplicably losing by 24 in “Happy Valley” to a Penn State squad that still sits in last place in the league.

That 19-point game from two weeks ago was much closer than the score suggests (2 point game at half), so Purdue will need to shake off their shooting woes against a Huskers team that’s a much tougher out in Pinnacle Bank Arena.

In the next article I hope to be talking about how Purdue took care of business in the next few upcoming games, and take a sneak peek at the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.

Boiler Up!

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Author Details
Content Creator at Armchair Purdue , The Armchair All-Americans, LLC
Drew Cubitt- Growing up in Evanston, IL I come from the heart of Northwestern nation. That said my choice of fandom was neither hard or forced. My parents both went to Purdue and met senior year. I was named Drew in large part due to Purdue great Drew Brees who would be drafted by the chargers just 2 months later. Yes I’m only 17. But because of this, at the spry age of eight I was witnessing the baby boilers of Purdue basketball, and a super bowl victory from my favorite NFL team, the Saints(Drew Brees). It is from here that I learned we can’t all be winners, as both the Saints and boiler basketball teams have combined to have 5 losing seasons since… not to mention myself never seeing a better than 6-6 regular season from the football squad(started following 07-08). BTW my golden retriever’s name is Boiler 😉
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Content Creator at Armchair Purdue , The Armchair All-Americans, LLC
Drew Cubitt- Growing up in Evanston, IL I come from the heart of Northwestern nation. That said my choice of fandom was neither hard or forced. My parents both went to Purdue and met senior year. I was named Drew in large part due to Purdue great Drew Brees who would be drafted by the chargers just 2 months later. Yes I’m only 17. But because of this, at the spry age of eight I was witnessing the baby boilers of Purdue basketball, and a super bowl victory from my favorite NFL team, the Saints(Drew Brees). It is from here that I learned we can’t all be winners, as both the Saints and boiler basketball teams have combined to have 5 losing seasons since… not to mention myself never seeing a better than 6-6 regular season from the football squad(started following 07-08). BTW my golden retriever’s name is Boiler 😉

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