Wagers with Stacks
Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Wagers with Stacks! It’s hard to believe that we are halfway through this college football season, but here we are! Teams are starting to hit their stride and others are trying to stay perfect as many teams still have their eyes on the College Football Playoff. This week we’ve got some good conference match-ups, a battle out West, and two Top 20 teams squaring off against each other. On the year, we aren’t exactly where we want to be, but we’ve got plenty of time to make up some ground. Let’s get after it!
2019 Overall : 10-13-2
#9 Florida (-5) @ South Carolina
Florida is coming off their first loss of the season against a very good LSU team on the road. Even though Florida ultimately ended up losing by 14 points, it was a competitive game throughout and Florida even had a lead midway through the 3rd quarter. South Carolina is coming off their biggest upset in years as they beat Georgia in Athens last Saturday. Both teams made countless mistakes, but a missed FG in double-OT was the final blow that gave the Gamecocks the victory. As of Wednesday afternoon, 63% of the wagers are going in the favor of the Gators, but the line has fallen half of a point since it opened which tells me that the money is trending towards South Carolina. I wouldn’t be surprised if the line falls to 4 before game time. Coming off a huge upset and the game being at noon, I’m going to call the ole hangover game here for the Gamecocks. Give me Florida at -5.
Texas A&M (-6) @ Ole Miss
A&M has been through the ringer so far this season. They are sitting at 3-3, but their losses have come to Clemson, Auburn, and Alabama. They’ve been somewhat competitive in every game that they have played, but if they were to lose this one, I could see the wheels falling off. Ole Miss enters with a 3-4 record with losses in three of their last four games. Their only win during that stretch was a victory against Vanderbilt, but after watching the Commodores lose to Northern Illinois by more than three TD last week, I’m not sure that one should even count. About 58% of all wagers are favoring the Aggies, and I am going to fall into that camp as well. Neither team has had a significant win, but A&M has looked much better so far this year. Give me the Aggies at -6.
Tennessee @ #1 Alabama (-34.5)
The Third Saturday in October! It is a “rivalry” that hasn’t been very competitive over the past 10-15 years. To put things into perspective, the Vols haven’t beat Alabama since the original iPhone was released. Tennessee is coming off its first true bright spot this season with an upset of Mississippi State last week in Knoxville, and they’ll be trying to carry over some of that momentum into the second half of the year. This will be the first time that Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt has returned to Bryant-Denny since he was Alabama’s defensive coordinator in 2017. In Vegas, 70% of wagers being made on the spread are in favor of the Crimson Tide. Even with this large of a line, I think that’s fair considering the two ends of the spectrum that these programs are on. Nick Saban isn’t one to overlook opponents, and I don’t think that he will this week. However, all I’ve heard in the news and from the Alabama fans and media is how they are so excited to have a night game and finally show off their new colored lights in the stadium. Hopefully they’ll all be looking up into the lights instead of looking at the Vols and they’ll be able to squeak in a few TDs. You can take your lights and your light show, give me the Vols in the Storm Trooper uniforms! Buy it to 35 though….just in case!
#14 Boise State (-7) @ BYU
Boise State enters this match-up with an undefeated record and they seem to be firing on all cylinders. BYU is on the other side of that coin. After early season upsets against Tennessee and USC, BYU hasn’t won a game and enters this contest at 2-4. The spread currently sits at -7 in favor of Boise St. The Broncos are by far the better team, and the only two things that I can think of as to why the line is so low is that it is a home game for BYU and that Boise’s starting QB is questionable with a hip injury. From a Vegas perspective, there haven’t been a ton of bets made on this game, but so far 90% of the public is taking Boise State to cover. This is where I’ve got to go with my head over my heart. Everything in me says that Boise State wins this game with ease, but I can’t ignore that 90%. Because of that, I’m siding with Vegas. Give me the Cougars at +7.
#16 Michigan @ #7 Penn State (-8.5)
Michigan has put together three wins in a row. They haven’t been pretty, but wins are wins. Penn State remains undefeated. For as bad as Michigan has looked all year, a win this week would put them back on track and silence some of the critics of the Wolverines and of Jim Harbaugh. Bettors in Vegas seem to think that Michigan is going to right the ship because as of Wednesday, 62% of wagers are in favor of the Wolverines. My guess is that most of those bettors think it will be a close game given that it is a conference match-up and Penn State struggled to put up points last week. I’ve been on the Michigan side a few times this year, but not this week. Penn State struggled last week because they were looking ahead to this game. They’re going to come out and smack them. Night game at home…give me James Franklin and the Nittany Lions at -8.5.
Well, that’s a wrap for Week 8. Good luck to all you gamblers out there!
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