Wagers with Stacks
Welcome to Week 6 and another edition of Wagers with Stacks! Good football is in full swing this week as conference games and ranked match-ups are all over the board. Let’s take a quick look at how we fared in Week 5 before we go head first into this week.
There’s only one word that I need to describe the outcome of Week 5. Brutal. I’m not going to break down each game from last week, honestly because I’m still a little bitter about it. Let’s just say that the gambling gods offered me up a fresh slice of humble pie and we are going to put it in the past and let it stay there. Ok? Ok!
Week 5 Record : 1-4
2019 Record : 8-10-2 (44%)
I do know one thing…everyone loves a great comeback, so let’s start chipping away at this abysmal record. So without further ado, Week 6! We’ve got some great match-ups including ranked teams facing off against one another and a Top 10 clash among SEC powers as well. Let’s get into it!
#14 Iowa @ #19 Michigan (-3.5)
Iowa enters this contest undefeated, but this week starts the meat of their schedule. Michigan is coming off a “big” win against Rutgers, but it’s Rutgers. The Michigan faithful are growing more and more frustrated with Jim Harbaugh with the near home loss against Army and the embarrassing loss last week in Madison. I think it’s safe to say that if the Wolverines were to drop this one at home, that seat is going to get very, very hot for Harbaugh. The bettors in Vegas seem to like the Hawkeyes so far in this one. As of Thursday afternoon, 62% of spread wagers and 65% of moneyline wagers were going in favor of Iowa. Based off that information, it seems like the public has lost hope on the Fighting Khakis. Michigan is going to right this ship…aren’t they? Especially at home this week? Surely. I’m buying it down to -3 and taking Michigan.
#7 Auburn (-3) @ #10 Florida
The battle of the unbeatens! Auburn comes into this game as the more contested team so far this season with wins against Oregon, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. The Gators have had an easier road to 5-0 with wins against struggling Miami, Tennessee, and Kentucky. I think that the Gators are still a bit over-rated, but I’ve thought that for the past few years and they continue to win football games. Auburn is the better team here, but don’t underestimate The Swamp. I know that Freshman QB, Bo Nix, went into Kyle Field and took care of the Aggies a couple weeks ago, but this will be another challenging road game where the environment is just different. 68% of spread wagers and 52% of moneyline wagers are in favor of the Tigers. I’m going to side with the public on this one. There’s not a huge discrepancy in where the money is going, and I like that Auburn defense against a backup QB any day of the week. I don’t care where the game is being played. Give me Auburn at -3.
#3 Georgia (-25) @ Tennessee
Georgia is as good as ever and Tennessee is on life support. A starting QB has yet to be announced for the Vols this week, and I believe the line will increase if they end up going with Brian Maurer over Jarrett Guarantano. This one has the potential to get out of hand early, and if it does you can expect to hear some boo-birds in Neyland Stadium on Saturday night. 63% of spread wagers are going in favor of the Bulldogs, even with that large of a spread. However, 70% of the moneyline wagers are going for the Vols. My only explanation for that is that there aren’t many moneyline bets being made and the ones that are being made are people trying to hit a huge underdog and cash in. You’ve probably got a better chance with scratch-offs at your local gas station. Georgia is going to win this game, but for some reason the orange blood in me thinks that we’ll muster up a decent effort and keep it within 24 points. When I say this, I’m going to say it with the confidence of Ron Burgandy saying his name with a question mark on the teleprompter…give me the Vols at +25.
#25 Michigan State @ #4 Ohio State (-20.5)
Ohio State looked like a dominant playoff contender last week as they destroyed Nebraska on the road. The Cornhusker fan base went all out with a “Red Out” and the environment leading up to the game was electric. That lasted about five minutes. From the moment the game started, the Buckeyes were better in every facet of the game. All of that red in the stands might as well have represented the bloodbath that was happening on the field. Michigan State has looked average so far this year. A slip up against Arizona State and a few “squeak by” games have put them at 4-1 this year. The public is backing Ohio State, even with this big of a spread. 68% of spread wagers and 70% of moneyline wagers are on the Buckeyes. There’s something about Mark Dantonio vs. Ohio State though. He’s beaten Ohio State 3 times since 2011, more than any other Big Ten team. I don’t think that they win this game, but I think they keep it fairly close. Buy it up half a point to cover yourself, and take Michigan State at +21.
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss (-7)
Let’s just be frank here, neither team is very good. Vanderbilt is 1-3 and their lone win came in a 24-18 victory against Northern Illinois. Ole Miss has competed in their games, but they have lost two in a row falling at home vs. California and on the road vs. Bama. There have been very few wagers made on this game so far in Vegas (896 as of Friday morning), so I’m not going to factor that in. At the end of the day, I think that Ole Miss is the better team and they should win by double-digits. Give me that weird, shark mascot thing at -7.
Well, there we have it. Week 6 is in the books! Good luck to the gamblers out there. Let’s win some money!
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