Wagers with Stacks – Week 4
Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Wagers with Stacks. Before we dive into a solid slate of games this week, let’s do a quick recap of how we fared in Week 3.
We started the day with our only loss of the week as Tennessee took care of FCS Tennessee-Chattanooga 45-0. I thought that the Vols (-28) would come out and play well early, but stall late while playing young guys and potentially give up a couple of late scores. However, the Vols proved me wrong by putting together four quarters of football for the first time all year and blanking the Chattanooga offense. The next pick of the day was Alabama (-24) on the road against South Carolina. Much like last week with A&M’s “make you sick to your stomach” garbage-time touchdown, South Carolina scored with 0:11 in the 4th quarter to bring the final score to 47-23. The TD came after a failed 4th and goal attempt in which targeting was called on the Crimson Tide giving the Gamecocks a 1st and goal on the two-yard line. A very unlucky push, but I was also thankful that I bought the line down and ultimately avoided the loss. Moving on to the next pick, we had the Florida Gators (-8) on the road against the Kentucky Wildcats. The Gators took an early lead, but the Wildcats led for most of the game after Florida’s Heisman hopeful QB, Feleipe Franks, went down with a season-ending ankle injury. Florida back-up, Kyle Trask led the Gators to 19 4th quarter points and a 29-21 victory that was capped off by a late 76-yard TD run by Josh Hammond with 0:33 remaining. For all of the bad beat losses and pushes that we’ve had over the past two weeks, it was nice to be on the other side of the coin for this push. The final pick of the week was an easy cover as we had the under (73.5) in the Oklahoma vs. UCLA game. As expected, this was a pretty one-sided contest, and there was only a total of 21 points scored in the 2nd half as the Sooners called off the dogs. Final score 48-14. Cha-ching!
Week 3 Record : 1-1-2
2019 Season Total : (4-4-2)
After ten wagers, we are sitting at exactly a 50% win rate. So as of now we aren’t winning any money, but hang with me…I’ve got you! Let’s look ahead to Week 4. We’ve got multiple intriguing SEC match-ups and a Top 10 match-up as well. Five plays this week…let’s get it!
Tennessee @ #9 Florida (-14)
Tennessee took care of business last week and finally got into the win column as they defeated UT-Chattanooga. It was the first time they put a full game together and they gained some much-needed momentum heading into The Swamp. Florida survived a tough road test at Kentucky, however they lost their star QB for the remainder of the season. Everyone knows the story here…the Gators have straight up owned the Vols over the last 14 years. The Vols are 1-13 over that stretch and they haven’t won in The Swamp since 2003. Ouch! The Gators are a better football team than Tennessee. That’s safe to say considering the Vols are a 14-point underdog to a back-up QB who hasn’t started a football game since his Freshman year of high school! From a Vegas perspective, 63% of spread wagers are actually going toward the Vols, while 71% of moneyline wagers are favoring the Gators. My orange-blooded heart tells me to take the Vols. I want to take the Vols. I can’t take the Vols. Give me Florida at -14 and if somehow Tennessee can pull off an upset and win the game, then I’ll gladly take the loss.
#11 Michigan @ #13 Wisconsin (-3.5)
These two teams are both coming off an early-season bye week and have had plenty of time to plan for each other. The last time Michigan took the field, they grinded out a double-OT home victory against Army. Wisconsin on the other hand has looked strong so far, winning both of their games in blowout fashion and have yet to give up a single point. That’s impressive no matter who your opponents are. The numbers are showing that Michigan must have left a bad taste in the mouth of the public after that Army game. 60% of spread bets are going towards the Badgers and 74% of the moneyline wagers are also going towards the Badgers. Those two numbers are enough for me to consider going against the grain on this one. I really don’t like Jim Harbaugh as a coach or as a human being in general, but he doesn’t lose these types of games this early in the year. It’s way too early…they’ve got to build the hype, blow it whenever they play Michigan St. and Ohio St., and then limp into a bowl game and lose to an SEC team. That’s the Michigan Man’s recipe! Give me the Fighting Khakis in this one at +3.5.
#8 Auburn @ #17 Texas A&M (-3.5)
Both of these teams have been tested early in the season. Auburn defeated a good Oregon team in a neutral site game to begin the year, and A&M went to Death Valley and competed with Clemson for most of the game. This will be the first true road game for Auburn’s freshman QB, Bo Nix. Kyle Field is going to be rowdy and rocking on Saturday for this one, and Nix will face an environment like he never has before. This one is close with 58% of bettors taking the Aggies. I expect that number to continue to swing back towards Auburn before kick-off and be close to a 50-50 split. I think this is going to be a tight game and may come down to whoever has the ball last. Give me the Aggies at home with the 12th Man making the difference, but buy it down to -3.
South Carolina @ Missouri (O/U 63.5)
Missouri has been rolling since their Week 1 loss to Wyoming, and South Carolina is coming off of a 24-point loss at home against a juggernaut Alabama team. Will Muschamp and his Gamecocks are no stranger to seeing Kelly Bryant lined up at QB across from them and they’ll have a game plan on how to keep him in check. On the offensive side of the ball, South Carolina will be going with Ryan Hilinski at QB after they lost Jake Bentley for the season to a foot injury during the opener against North Carolina. Hilinski has played well over the last two games throwing for over 600 yards and 4 TDs. Some of the Gamecock faithful believe that the injury to Bentley was a blessing in disguise and see Hilinski as the better option for the future. The spread in this one is Missouri (-9), but I’m just not comfortable going either direction on that one. I’m going to rely on the Will Muschamp defense and hope that South Carolina grinds this one out on the ground instead of getting into a track meet. Give me the Under 63.5.
#7 Notre Dame @ #3 Georgia (-14)
The Week 4 Grand-Daddy of them all! Kirby Smart and Jake Fromm versus Brian Kelly and Ian Book. This Top 10 match-up features two teams who have both made the College Football Playoff in the last two years and have aspirations of repeating that feat this year. Coming in to this game, Georgia has been firing on all cylinders. Jake Fromm is completing 75% of his passes and D’Andre Swift is averaging 9.4 yards per carry. That could spell trouble for Notre Dame’s defense. Notre Dame has played Louisville and New Mexico so far this season, and after those two mediocre opponents, they are ranked 121st in rushing defense. That stat is something that the Bulldog offensive line and backfield are salivating over. If Notre Dame doesn’t bottle up the Georgia rushing attack early, this could be a long day for the Irish. A long day for the Irish is exactly what the bettors are hoping for. As of Thursday afternoon, 74% of spread bets were on the Bulldogs and 87% of the moneyline bets were also going in favor of Georgia. I’m going to go against my gut here and side with house. I can easily see Georgia covering the 14 points, but anytime it’s this one-sided I am going to ride the Vegas coattails and see what happens. Give me the Fighting Irish at +14 on the road.
Good luck to all the bettors out there. Let’s go make some money!
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