Wagers with Stacks
Welcome to Conference Championship Week! This week is where the rubber meets the road and teams either earn their spot in the College Football Playoff or they slip up and potentially lose the grip on their championship aspirations. This year is a little different in that it seems that there is only one spot left to be determined. Many believe that even if an undefeated team goes down this week, they have already earned their opportunity to win a national championship. Let’s do a quick recap of where we stand heading into this week.
Week 14: 3-3
2019 Regular Season Total: 26-26-2
After an entire season of football, we’ve finished at a dead even 50%. Not exactly ideal, but at the same time nothing to be overly disappointed with. Since we are limited on games this week, I am going to make picks on the spread and the total for every Power 5 Conference Championship game. So cross your fingers…here we go!
#13 Oregon vs. #5 Utah (-6.5) (Over/Under: 45.5)
The only hope that the Pac-12 has to make the CFP this year lies in the hands of Utah. Not only will Utah need to win, they will probably need to win convincingly in order to prevent Oklahoma from jumping them if the Sooners were to beat Baylor on Saturday. On top of that, they will also need Georgia to lose in the SEC Championship game. It is definitely a “if this, then that” situation, but all they can control is what happens against Oregon on Friday night. The Utes are receiving 58% of the spread wagers and 53% of the moneyline wagers up to this point. As far as the Over/Under goes, 79% of the wagers are going in the direction of the Under. The total opened at 51 and is already down to 45.5. Utah has won 8 in a row and has all of the momentum heading into this matchup. They are focused and know that a ticket to the CFP is on the line. Give me the Utes in this one at -6.5 and also the Over 45.5.
#7 Baylor vs #6 Oklahoma (-9) (Over/Under: 64.5)
This is a rematch from just three weeks ago where Oklahoma overcame a 28-3 deficit and stunned the Baylor Bears 34-31. I’ve thought that Baylor has been a fraud all year who benefitted from a weak schedule in a conference having an overall down year. I know that they “had” Oklahoma a few weeks ago, but they blew it. On top of that, the Sooners just weren’t all there early in that game as they turned the ball over three times and gave up some big plays to the Baylor offense. Currently, 70% of all spread wagers and 78% of all moneyline wagers are favoring the Bears. I just don’t see it. Bettors are also confident in the Over hitting in this game as 89% of all total bets are going that direction. Aside from my thoughts on Baylor, I stick to my guns when it comes to my gambling strategy and the contrarian play here is obvious. Give me Oklahoma at -9 and the Under 64.5.
#4 Georgia vs. #2 LSU (-7) (Over/Under: 55)
First of all, I don’t understand how LSU isn’t ranked #1. I’m fairly certain that the CFP committee put them at number two just in case Alabama were to sneak in so they could avoid that #1 vs. #4 rematch. Now with Alabama out of the picture, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if LSU were to jump back into the #1 spot with a win this week, but with the Committee you never know. The only way that Georgia has a chance to remain in the Top 4 is with an upset victory this week…a task no other team has been able to accomplish this year. LSU is currently receiving 74% of all spread wagers and 57% of moneyline wagers. Additionally, 72% of the Over/Under bets are trending in the direction of the Under. I think Georgia is a really good football team, but I think LSU is a great football team that has been firing on all cylinders for most of the season. Also, I don’t know if Kirby can win the big one. Georgia has had multiple opportunities over the past few years, but they can’t seem to get over the hump. I think that LSU wins this game, but since they are almost receiving 75% of the spread money, I am going to take Georgia at +7. Also, give me the Over 55.
#23 Virginia vs #3 Clemson (-28) (Over/Under: 57.5)
If I’m being honest, I wouldn’t even sniff this game if it weren’t the ACC Championship game. Clemson has run through virtually everyone it has played this year. Yes, Clemson is a very good football team, but the ACC is just garbage overall. The money in this one is surprisingly closer than I would have expected, but I would say that is mostly attributed to the 28-point spread. Currently 64% of the money is in Clemson’s favor, with 80% of the total wagers going in favor of the Over at 57.5. I expect Clemson’s ACC dominance to be on display and for them to come out and steamroll Virginia. Give me Clemson -28 and the Under 57.5.
#8 Wisconsin vs #1 Ohio State (-16.5) (Over/Under: 57)
Ohio State defeated Wisconsin by 31 points a little over a month ago. To give Wisconsin a little credit, it was 10-7 in the third quarter before Ohio State ran off 28 unanswered points. Much like LSU, Ohio State could probably lose this game and still punch their ticket to the CFP. Wisconsin would need a victory and a small miracle for them to somehow end up in the Top 4 on Sunday, but I suppose it’s possible. However, not many people are giving the Badgers a fighting chance. Despite the larger spread, 90% of spread wagers are in favor of the Buckeyes. Also, 80% of the Over/Under wagers are going in the direction of the Over. I think that the Badgers come out looking for some revenge…or at least to show the world that they are better than the outcome from October. Give me Wisconsin at +17 (buying 0.5 point) and the Under 57.
That’s all I’ve got for this week…enjoy some great football this weekend! Good luck to all the gamblers out there!
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