Wagers with Stacks
Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the first edition of Wagers with Stacks! Every week I will be covering and breaking down college football (mostly SEC) and sharing my picks as well. I’ll keep track of those picks each week so that at the end of the year you can thank me for the extra money in your pocket or blame me for the lack thereof.
I am by no means an “expert” when it comes to sports wagering, but I am fairly-seasoned on the topic. Basically, what I’m trying to say is that over the last ten years or so I’ve won my fair share and I’ve probably lost just a little bit less than that. Traditionally, I’m a numbers guy who is a contrarian bettor at heart. What’s a contrarian bettor? Short version, it means that I study situational trends and where the majority of the money is going, and most of the time (not always) I side with Vegas instead of the people. What’s that old saying….”The house always wins!”. Does it ALWAYS work? No, but as a sports bettor I just have to be right 52.4% of the time to break even. Anything over that…straight cash homie!
We’ve got a pretty good slate of games this week including some teams looking (needing) to bounce back, a Top 10 matchup, and the #1 team in the country with a tough test at home. So, without further ado, let’s get this thing started!
West Virginia @ Missouri (-14)
Last week was a rough start for a few SEC teams, and Missouri was on that list. Kelly Bryant, former Clemson QB, made his Missouri debut and he played well. He threw for over 400 yards and 2 TD, but ultimately Missouri lost on the road to Wyoming. West Virginia came out of Week 1 with a scare against FCS powerhouse James Madison, but pulled out a 7-point home victory when it was all said and done. From a gambling perspective, 72% of the spread wagers on this game are going in favor of the Tigers. This is where I would normally go against the public and side with the house on West Virginia at +14, however I don’t think that West Virginia is very good and I think Bryant and his new Tigers bounce back and cover with ease. Give me Mizzou -14 at home.
Vanderbilt @ Purdue (-8)
Both of these teams are coming off of a Week 1 loss. Vanderbilt’s loss was expected as they hosted the #3 Georgia Bulldogs in the season opener and fell 30-6. Purdue blew a 17-point lead and was stunned on a 56-yard FG as time expired at Nevada. Purdue is the favorite in this one at home, but 62% of the money on spread wagers for this game are going in favor of the Commodores. I don’t know a ton about this Purdue team, but I know Vanderbilt and they’re awful. Jeff Brohm isn’t going to drop back-to-back games to inferior opponents. Go earn that raise, Jeff! Give me the Boilermakers at -8.
# 12 Texas A&M @ #1 Clemson (-18)
Both teams took care of business and looked impressive in Week 1. Texas A&M had a tune-up game against in-state opponent Texas State and Clemson got off to a great ACC start with a 38-point win against Georgia Tech. These two teams met up last year as well in College Station where Clemson squeaked by and walked out with a 2-point victory. This year, Clemson is the favorite at -18. EIGHTEEN! At first glance, that seems pretty high and the public agrees too. 83% of the money on spread wagers are going towards A&M, and 52% of the moneyline wagers (where you just have to pick the winner) are also going towards the Aggies. I think Jimbo Fisher is a good coach and I think A&M is a good team, but I don’t think that they are ready for Dabo and Death Valley. Clemson wins in a rout! Give me the -18.
BYU @ Tennessee (-3.5)
Ugh. Do I have to? Both teams are coming into this one 0-1, however the manner in which they got there were polar opposites. BYU hosted the #14 Utah Utes last weekend. After a competitive first half, Utah pulled away in the second half and secured a 30-12 victory. Tennessee hosted Georgia State in what was supposed to be a tune-up game. Georgia State shocked the Vols in Neyland Stadium with a 38-30 victory that wasn’t as close as the final score showed. This game has gone from a measuring stick, “let’s see what happens” game to a must-win in the eyes of VolNation. The wagers on this game are split right down the middle. 51% of the wagers on the spread are with BYU at +3.5 and 51% of moneyline bettors are taking the Vols. They have showed me absolutely nothing to make me feel confident in picking the Vols in this game, but they can’t be that bad…can they? To further my lack of confidence, BYU is 9-2 against the spread as a visiting underdog since 2016. So that means they’re due…right? Vols recover and get a much-needed home win. Buying it down a half point just in case and taking Tennessee at -3.
Miami (-5) @ UNC
If we’re being honest, both of these teams should be coming into this matchup with a 1-0 record. However, Miami wasn’t quite able to capitalize on the multiple chances that they had last week in their rivalry with the Florida Gators and ultimately ended up losing 24-20. North Carolina went into their game with South Carolina as an 11-point underdog. The Gamecocks were right on that line as they took a 20-9 lead into the 4th quarter only to be outscored 15-0 from that point on and lose to the Tar Heels 24-20. The majority of the public (65%) is betting that Miami bounces back and covers the spread on the road. In this case, I tend to agree with them. I think that Miami is the more athletic and better team overall. And if you needed further proof, even Hurricane Dorian has decided to follow the Canes up to UNC and cheer them on. It’s science! Bank on the Heels hangover after the “big” upset. Canes -5.
# 6 LSU (-5.5) @ # 9 Texas
Of all the games going on this week, this is the one getting the most buzz. Two Top 10 teams squaring off this early is exactly what college football fans are here to see. LSU is coming off of a 55-3 win against Georgia Southern where they were dominant all afternoon and Texas is in a similar situation as they took care of Louisiana Tech 45-14. The hype in Austin is buzzing this week! The cheapest you can get a pair of tickets for this game right now on StubHub is $994.01. And in case you weren’t aware, Darren K. Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium holds just over 100,000 people. From the gambling perspective, it’s pretty tight. Right now, 53% of the money on the spread is going towards the Longhorns and they are also getting 57% of the moneyline wagers. It’s going to be loud and the stadium is going to be rocking, but LSU is used to those type of environments. Coach Orgeron is a great motivator and he’ll have his team ready for this one. We may not be able to understand most of what he says, but I’m counting on hearing a Coach O “Go Tigers!” at the end of this one. Give me LSU -5.5.
That’s all I’ve got for college football this week. Good luck to all the gamblers out there! Until next week…
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