Wagers with Stacks
Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Wagers with Stacks! The Week 5 line-up of games is very….for a lack of better words, bleh. We’ve got a few decent match-ups, but for the most part it is littered with high spreads and games that not many people will have much interest in…unless there is a wager that has been placed, of course! Before we go diving head first into Week 5, let’s do a quick recap of how last week went and where we are sitting on the year.
Last week, our first game we chose was the noon kickoff between Florida and Tennessee. The Vols failed to take advantage of many opportunities early, and the more talented Gators eventually pulled away in the 2nd half. Florida won by 31 points and easily covered the 14-point spread. The next pick was one that I wish I could take back because it wasn’t even close. I thought that Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines would pull off an upset up in Madison against Wisconsin. Boy was I wrong. The Badgers dominated Michigan from the first play and the game was never close. Final score…35-14. The third pick of the week was Texas A&M hosting Auburn. This ended up being our second loss of the day as Auburn went on the road and took care of business. The Tigers’ freshman QB, Bo Nix, wasn’t overly impressive in his first true road test, but he was good enough to get the job done and ultimately lead his team to a 28-20 victory. Next up, we had the Under in the South Carolina and Missouri game at 63.5 points. Missouri’s defense stepped up to the challenge and scored two TDs. The first was a fumble recovery in the endzone for the first score of the game, and the second was a 100-yard interception return late in the 3rd quarter which was the final nail in the coffin. We never really sweat the points on this one and it was an easy cover with the final score being 34-14. Our final game of the day was the marquee match-up of the week as Georgia hosted Notre Dame. Everybody and their brother was throwing their money in the direction of the Bulldogs at -14…everybody except for us! It was a great game to be a contrarian and go against the grain because the Irish came out and gave Georgia a scare. Ultimately, the Bulldogs were able to hold off Notre Dame and pull out a 23-17 victory.
Week 4 Record : 3-2
2019 Season Total : 7-6-2 (53.8%)
We’ve finally cracked into that wonderful world of over 50% after a slow start. Let’s keep it going this week and improve on those numbers! As I had mentioned before, there are a few good games this week, but nothing that I’m cancelling plans to watch. Nevertheless, there will be football on the television…which means that odds makers have set the lines….which means the gamblers are going to gamble! Let’s make some money!
#23 Texas A&M (-23) vs. Arkansas
The Aggies and the Razorbacks are both coming into this game with a 2-2 record. However, the two teams couldn’t be on any further ends of the spectrum from one another. A&M has lost games to two Top 10 ranked teams in Clemson and Auburn. Arkansas has lost to Ole Miss and San Jose State. Vegas hasn’t had many wagers placed on this game up to this point (only 1,100), so I’m not going to factor in where the money is going with such a small sample size to base a decision on. This game is being played at a neutral site in Arlington, TX at AT&T Stadium…aka “Jerry’s World”. My first thought was that Jerry’s alma mater playing in Jerry’s World may get generous calls all afternoon. Then I thought that I can see an Aggies team that is a little deflated coming off another big game loss overlook Arkansas and start eye-balling their next match-up against Alabama in a couple weeks. Finally, I came to my senses and realized how bad this Arkansas team is and how they have zero chance in this one. This game is on the biggest stage in all of football, the mecca of all stadiums. A&M is going to be hyped up and looking to get their momentum going heading into a bye week where they will plan for Alabama. Give me the Aggies in a rout.
Ole Miss @ #2 Alabama (Over/Under 62)
The Rebels enter this contest coming off a loss at home to California. Alabama has continued to do typical Alabama things and has started the year off 4-0. It’s not too often that you see a spread of almost 40 points in an SEC matchup, but that’s exactly what we have here as Bama is favored by 38 points as of Friday morning. I think Alabama can probably win by as many points as Nick Saban wants, but I’m not comfortable betting on a 38-point favorite. So what do I do? Bet on the total! 73% of all over/under wagers are being made on the over in this game. I just don’t see it. Alabama could score 62 by themselves if they wanted to, but traditionally that’s not Saban’s style. He’s more of a “get up big and then show mercy” kind of guy. I think that the Tide puts up around 40-50 points and the Rebels squeeze in a late TD. Give me the Under 62.
#21 USC @ #17 Washington (-10)
The only Top 25 match-up that we are picking this week is a showdown between Southern Cal and Washington. USC is starting their third-string QB, Matt Fink. Normally, a third-stringer would be a near guaranteed win for whoever that team was playing, but last week Fink proved that maybe he should have been playing all along. Fink threw for 351 yards and 3 TD as the Trojans upset a very good #10 Utah squad. Fink’s TD passes weren’t slants and quick outs where the WR made a move or broke a tackle, they were back shoulder, corner of the endzone, precision passes. The guy looked like an All-American for 60 minutes. The biggest question in this one is can lightning strike twice or was it a beginner’s luck situation? Diving into the numbers, gamblers seem to think that it was a fluke. 68% of money bet on the spread is going towards the Huskies, and 93% of moneyline wagers are also in favor of the Huskies. Do I think that Washington will win the game? Yes. Do I think the Huskies are capable of covering the spread? Sure. Will I go with the public when there is that large of a discrepancy? Absolutely not! Give me USC at +10 all day when the money looks like this.
Mississippi State @ #7 Auburn (-11)
Auburn is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. They probably have the most impressive wins out of anyone this far into the season with a neutral site victory over Oregon and a road win last week at Texas A&M. The Bulldogs are coming off a conference win against Kentucky and have looked better than I expected coming into the year. 71% of all spread bets are in favor of the Tigers in this one. Personally, I think that this is the perfect spot for a hangover game for Auburn. They are coming off of a big win on the road, and they’ve got another potential Top 10 match-up next week in The Swamp against the Gators. I don’t think they slip, but I believe it’s going to be closer than most people expect. I’ll take Mississippi State at +11.
Kentucky @ South Carolina (-3)
Ever since Kentucky blew a 2nd half lead against the Gators a couple of weeks ago, they have been struggling. They now find themselves 2-2 facing a South Carolina team who is 1-3. Both teams need this one badly if they are going to turn their seasons around and gain some footing in the SEC East. The bettors seem to like Kentucky as 67% of the spread wagers and 78% of the moneyline bets are going in the Wildcats’ favor. For me, I don’t think either team is very good. I think Kentucky was a little over hyped and riding the coattails of a successful 2018 season and South Carolina is going through a learning curve with new QB Ryan Hilinski. At the end of the day, I like Hilinski to have a bounce back performance and lead the Gamecocks to a victory at home. Give me Carolina at -3.
Well, there we have it. Week 5 picks officially submitted. Good luck to all of the gamblers out there…unless your going against my picks.
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