Wagers with Stacks – Week 3
Welcome back to the college football Week 3 edition of Wagers with Stacks! Before we go diving into this week’s slate of games, let’s do a quick recap of Week 2.
We started the day off 2-0 with two easy covers. Missouri (-14) took care of West Virginia in a 38-7 rout, and Purdue (-8) bounced back and got into the win column with a 42-24 victory over Vanderbilt. The next game up was Clemson (-18) hosting Texas A&M. Clemson led by 21 for the entire 4th quarter, however A&M scored a garbage-time TD with 0:06 left on the clock and Clemson won by 14. That is the kind of ending that will make you sick and ponder on the question of whether or not sports and sports gambling are rigged. Speaking of making your sick, our next pick was Tennessee (-3) against BYU. This game should have been a push at the very least, but Tennessee had other plans. Leading by 3 points late in the 4th quarter, the Vols gave up a long pass that put the Cougars in FG range. BYU hit that FG with 0:01 remaining in regulation to force OT. From there, BYU took advantage of the gift-wrapped opportunity and defeated the Vols 29-26 in double OT. Next up was Miami (-5) making the trip to North Carolina. This is the only game that we truly should have lost, but also could have easily been a push. The Tar Heels were down by five late in the 4th quarter, but then scored a TD and converted on the 2-point conversion to take a 28-25 lead with 1:01 remaining in regulation. The final game that we picked in Week 2 was the game of the week…LSU (-5.5) against Texas. Both teams were impressive, but in the end LSU and Coach Orgeron left Austin with a 45-38 victory.
Week 2 Record : (3-3) ….should have been (4-1-1)
2019 Season Total : (3-3)
Alright, now that Week 2 is behind us…let’s look ahead! What does Week 3 have to offer us? Honestly, not much. There are no Top 25 match-ups and the slate is cluttered with cupcakes and double-digit spreads. If you were to ever get married on a non-bye week Saturday during the fall, this would be a great one to choose. Nevertheless, there’s football on television, wagers to be made, and money to be won! Scared money doesn’t win…let’s get after it!
Chattanooga @ Tennessee (-28)
Why? I don’t want to, but I feel obligated to add this game into the weekly picks. Tennessee SHOULD win this game, but we all know how that goes. The Vols come into this one as a 28-point favorite. Normally, I wouldn’t think twice about that spread and I’d be all over Tennessee, but I have a feeling they’ll be “working on” a few things and letting some of the younger guys (hopefully QBs) get some much needed playing time. With that, mistakes will happen and I’m not confident that Tennessee can cover a four TD spread. Tennessee gets back on track, but with young guys getting a shot and a trip to The Swamp on the schedule next week, give me the Mocs at +28.
#2 Alabama (-25.5) @ South Carolina
It’s not often that you see an SEC home team this big of an underdog, especially one led by a Will Muschamp defense. However, Alabama is a different animal. South Carolina got back on track last week against Charleston Southern and evened up their record at 1-1 after that Week 1 loss to UNC. Alabama did Alabama things and took care of New Mexico St. 62-10. As of Thursday afternoon in Las Vegas, almost 80% of the money on spread wagers were going in favor of the Crimson Tide. However, there had been very few bets made (only around 2,200), so I am not going to take those numbers into account. The last time these two teams met was in 2014 and the Gamecocks pulled out a 35-21 victory. I don’t see that happening this time around. Just to be safe, I’m going to buy it down a little and risk the juice…give me Bama at -24.
#9 Florida (-8) @ Kentucky
Both teams are coming into this one 2-0 and looking to continue that momentum into the race for the SEC East. Last year when these two teams met up in The Swamp, Kentucky ended a 31-game losing streak to the Gators. At the time, it was the longest active win streak against an opponent in the country. Prior to that game, Florida had only lost six games to SEC East opponents in The Swamp since 1990…SIX…IN 28 YEARS!! It is worth noting that Florida plays Georgia at a neutral site every year, but it’s still an impressive stat. Needless to say, it is a new year and the Gators are out to get some revenge. 68% of all money wagered on spread bets are going in favor of Florida, but 74% of moneyline wagers are going towards the Wildcats. In my eyes, that’s a wash and Vegas is making money either way. I still think that Florida is a little overrated, and Kentucky feels disrespected and are tired of being treated like the proverbial doormat that they’ve been over the past couple decades. I think Kentucky comes into this one confidently and they’ll keep it close early. However, Florida is going to be focused after last year and they are just on a different level than the Wildcats. Give me the Gators at -8 in what should be a double-digit win.
#5 Oklahoma @ UCLA (O/U : 73.5)
Oklahoma is a powerhouse and I have absolutely zero faith in Chip Kelly and his UCLA Bruins. It’s so bad right now at UCLA, they are giving four additional tickets away to every season ticket holder who attended their game last week against San Diego State…that’s not a joke. For as bad as things are at Tennessee and Florida State right now, they are ten times worse at UCLA. When the lines opened up on this game, the over/under was set at 66.5. In a span of a few days, that number has climbed to 73.5 and the money is still coming in on the over. Currently, 82% of the money on over/under bets are taking the over. I believe that Oklahoma can win this game by as many points as they want to. They could probably bust the over by themselves if they desired, but I’m predicting a big first half and then the Sooners hitting the brakes on the points. It could be close, but give me the under 73.5 in this one.
That’s all I’ve got for Week 3. Since I went with six games last week and this week doesn’t have any great match-ups, I’m only going with four to get us to ten total wagers on the year. Good luck to all the gamblers out there! We’ll see you next week.
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