Introducing you to a new way of assessing Major League Baseball pitchers, Magnum Start Value.
While most of you are familiar with the term “quality start”, I doubt Magnum Start Value (MSV) is in your vocabulary (magnum is derived from magnus, meaning “great”). That is because of its’ obscurity, due to the fact that I have been developing this concept on a blog site. MSV’s purpose is to increase the difficulty level in order for a starting pitchers outing to be considered valuable, mostly because a hurler needs to throw 7 IP+ with 2 ER or less to qualify.
Given there have been similar attempts with those standards (Ultra Quality Start, Mega Quality Start, and Dominant Start), however, none of which provide the in-depth analysis MSV does. Before we get into the entire umbrella of Magnum Start Value, I should divulge the formula itself.
To begin, there are two major rules involved in MSV. First, if a pitcher allows more than nine hits and walks combined, he does not qualify for a Magnum Start. Second, errors committed while the studied hurler was pitching leads to 1.345 times the miscue total. The result of that tally is then subtracted from the combined walks and hits. In the scenario that the errors made dropped a pitchers’ total down to nine or less (this aspect also impacts other parts of MSV), he would record a MS.
Here is the formula for Magnum Start Value
*(1) 7 to 7.2 IP: 2.5
(x) Add 0.5 if pitcher gives up five or less BB+H
Multiply (a) into total if (x) occurs in 7.2 IP
*(2) 8 to 8.2 IP: 4.75
(y) Add 0.75 if pitcher gives up five of less BB+H
Multiply (b) into total if (y) occurs in 8.2 IP
*(3) Complete Game/9 IP: 6.5
(z) Add 1.5 if pitcher gives up five or less BB+H
Multiply (a) into total if (z) occurs
E: 1.345 (errors-this aspect of the formula is calculated regardless)
- These are designated as outcomes, which combine the distance a pitcher goes in a start along with allowing two earned runs or less. No hurler can throw less than the allotted innings and qualify for a Magnum Start.
- Always round decimals to the nearest hundredth.
Moving on to the terms under MSV’s umbrella, it is critical to forewarn you that there is a litany of them. There is a purpose for this, as they aid the statistics’ ability to expose and fight itself. Due to that, Magnum Start Value becomes significantly more useful than it would if I just left it with individual scores.
Here are the terms:
When a pitcher is being evaluated by his yearly MSV scores, there are two simple ways- Yearly Magnum Total (YMT) and Yearly Magnum Average (YMA). The former is calculated by adding up an individual pitchers MSV scores throughout the season, while YMA would be tallied by dividing his YMT into the number of starts he made throughout the season (Magnum or not).
For monthly evaluations, a similar calculation is used. Terms are Monthly Magnum Total (MMT) and Monthly Magnum Average (MMA). Just as with the yearly total and average, the same formula is used however this time for a calendar month. It cannot be over 31 days, just one of the twelve we all know.
The Magnum Percentages
Since pitchers can qualify for a Magnum Start once they throw seven innings or more (and 2 ER or less), it makes sense to evaluate a hurlers’ MSV performances by percentage. There is a way to do this, by dividing them against one another. I do this in a simple way, each inning level will be categorized differently regardless of yearly or monthly analysis.
Now, on to their titles. From the seventh inning on (yearly), they have entitled Minima Yearly Percentage (MYP), Median Percentage Yearly (MPY), and Yearly Premium Percentage (YPP). As I said above, only starts that qualify for a Magnum Start are divided against each other, therefore any outing a pitcher fails to record a MS does not enter the calculus.
As for monthly, they have a similar vocabulary. In ascending order, the terms are Monthly Minima Percentage (MMP), Median Percentage Monthly (MPM), and Monthly Premium Percentage (MPP). For those interested “minima” is plural for minimum, hence the reason for it being the lowest.
The term used to evaluate each is MY-Dot and MO-Dot, which is where you unveil the percentages. MY-Dot comes from Magnum Yearly Percentage and MO-Dot is a result of Magnum and Monthly combined with the decimal aspect of it.
The Quality Percentages
Just as with the Magnum Percentages, MSV evaluates Quality Starts for evaluation purposes. The formula is the same, with each category being divided against the others. However, for this classification, there are four to analyze instead of three.
Speaking of the terms, I will unveil them in ascending order. For yearly, they are Yearly Hexagonal Percentage (YHP), Heptagonal Yearly Percentage (HYP), Octagonal Yearly Percentage (OYP), and Yearly Nonagonal Percentage (YNP). In the scenario you want to evaluate a hurler Quality Starts by month, a similar verbiage is used.
Once again from least to greatest, the will be revealed. It starts with Monthly Hexagonal Percentage (MHP), followed by Heptagonal Monthly Percentage (HMP), Octagonal Monthly Percentage (OMP), Nonagonal Monthly Percentage (NHP). Once again, these terms are evaluated under QY-Dot (Ki-Dot) and QO-Dot (Ko-Dot) just as MY-Dot and MO-Dot are but for a different area of analysis. For those interested, the names of these terms identify with the inning.
Due to the fact that MSV analyzing both Magnum and Quality Starts, it is necessary to evaluate them by overall percentage. For Magnum Starts, the term is entitled Yearly Magnum Percentage (YMP) which is calculated by adding up all of a pitchers MS and dividing them into his total starts over the season.
If you would like to break down Quality Starts the same way, just use the same formula but with QS. That term is Yearly Quality Percentage (YQP), and is likely to be higher than YMP each and every time. The last aspect of MSV’s umbrella is Quality Start Total (QST), which is nothing more than a hurlers’ QS over a period of time.
Before we wrap up, it is vital for you to understand that this concept is a part of “combimetrics”. That refers to a blend of sabermetrics and traditional statistics and can be used in many ways, such as this when Game Score and Quality Starts are melded. Combimetrics is something the math community should also take a look at, not through sports but blending different formulas and areas of mathematics.
All in all, you should get used to combimetrics. I will also introduce Magnum Start Theory (MST), however, that is used to evaluate teams more than individual pitchers. Magnum Start Theory will aid the analysis of MSV through cross-analysis, not to mention put a value on how much a club may actually be helping their hurlers. So stick around, much more to come.