I can’t believe it.
That’s the theme of the day.
I can’t believe that it’s already the 2019 NFL Draft. I’ve been working towards this day since September and really put the pedal to the metal once football season ended.
This is my second-annual mock draft that I did with Armchair. Last year’s mock went very, very well. I picked eight out of the 32 picks correctly, including some big trades. How good is that?
Out of 137 football experts, I was tied for fourth. I made more correct picks than people like Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Mike Mayock and Peter King.
I’ll stop the bragging because this year will be different.
This year, I will NOT have that success.
The reason? Time. With my first year in college already in the rearview mirror, I can look back and see that I did not prepare for the draft as much I have in the past. Therefore, most of the information I gathered is relatively recent. That’s not a bad thing, but it coincides with the NFL’s worst annual tradition: Lying Season.
Lying Season is the period right before the NFL Draft when fake information and rumors dominate the football world. Occasionally, rumors arise from the smokescreen and becomes a fact. For the most part, though, it’s hard to believe everything you hear leading up to the draft.
See? I can’t believe all the things I’m hearing.
A QB first overall? More trades than any other first round ever? Two tight ends taken before a RB?
Sounds crazy, but with the NFL Draft, there is only truth and fiction. There’s no room for crazy.
Look, I can talk all day long about what I’ve gotten right and why you should trust my opinions. That’s not how this works, though. Sure, I put more work into the NFL than anything else in my life and I would love for you to see that, but to stand here and say I’m perfect would be unbearably naive.
On the other hand, it’s pointless to put myself down a lot, too. Transparency is a big thing with making predictions and giving opinions, but so is confidence. I’m confident that the work I’ve put in to make this article possible is as good as it can be. As with anything I ever do, I put 110% effort into this.
All the information I gathered in this article, my beautiful baby that I spent months perfecting, comes from a plethora of proven, reliable sources. For some teams, the predictions are easy. For others, I drew a name out of a hat. Kidding, though it seems that’s what the Giants will be doing with one of their picks tonight.
I’ve also always been huge on neutrality. I’m a big believer that with most things, the wrong answer is saying that there’s a right answer. That is so, so true when it comes to predicting the future, as I’m about to do. When you’re looking at this mock draft, keep in mind that nothing, and I mean NOTHING is ever set-in-stone, even if I say it is.
With that said, I hope you enjoy my creation. I encourage you to focus less on the name slotted to the team and more to the information under it, because that’s where you’ll find out what your team (if you have one) is doing tonight.
As always, thanks so much for the support. While I’d still do this anyway whether I had an audience or not, it definitely helps knowing there are other people who care about my work.
Without further ado, I present to you my Second Annual Terrible Mock Draft!
Things I Know
I know there will be many trades. The trade-winds are swirling faster than normal this draft season and many teams are looking to trade down.
However, not many teams are eyeing a move up. Most of the deals will happen at the end of tonight when teams can move up from the second round in an attempt to add an extra year on their player’s contract. (In simple terms, all first-round picks get the chance for an extra fifth-year on their rookie contract.)
I know QBs will be reached for. I am fairly confident in this. Looking at the last three drafts, only Baker Mayfield was not traded up for. All other first-round QBs were selected by a team who moved up to take them. QBs are also a premium position, and this year’s class is… not good.
Guys like Daniel Jones and Drew Lock are going to be first-round picks when they might have been second-rounders in prior years. Pending that Kyler Murray goes first, expect a whole bunch of movement once the next QB is taken.
I know this year’s draft is heavy on linemen. There is lots of depth with the defensive line and offensive line classes this year. I can see anywhere from five to seven linemen going in the first ten picks alone.
This also means that teams might wait to draft one, knowing they could still probably get a solid player later. Personally, I think if a team likes a player enough, they should take him regardless of position.
Things I Don’t Know
I don’t know anything. Okay, that’s not entirely true. As I said earlier, predicting the NFL Draft is an imperfect science. No one knows what reports to believe and no one ever truly knows what is going on inside the brains of NFL front offices.
There are many times when people think one thing about the draft and another thing happens. When the Saints traded up last year, most people assumed a QB was about to be taken. They took an edge rusher. My point is that no one can accurately predict the future, but it sure is fun to try…
1. Cardinals – Kyler Murray, QB
As a Josh Rosen believer and really just a casual football fan with common sense, I do not like this pick. I get that Murray is supposed to be a better fit for new coach Kliff Kingsbury’s system, but throwing away one bad season for a high-ceiling, low-floor player like Murray? That’s very risky.
I’ve never fully believed that Murray would be the pick until today. Why would Arizona go through all this trouble just to not pick a QB? That has to hurt Rosen, their current QB who was taken tenth overall last year. If it is a smokescreen, I think Quinnen Williams could be the guy over Nick Bosa.
2. 49ers – Nick Bosa, EDGE
Rumors are swirling that the 49ers are looking to trade edge rusher Solomon Thomas just two years after taking him third overall.
Coupled with Bosa’s constant connection to San Fransisco and the 49ers’ loaded defensive line, this shouldn’t be a surprising pick.
Like many teams in this year’s draft, the 49ers really want to trade down but I don’t think any team has the ammo nor the desire to move up, unless it’s a small swap at the top between the Jets or Raiders.
3. Jets – Quinnen Williams, DL
I went back and forth between Williams and Ed Oliver on this one. Ultimately, I went with Williams because he is simply the better player and probably the best player in the draft.
The Jets have been known to go BPA (a strategy where a team takes the Best Player Available regardless of need or position) and I’ve heard they love Williams and Oliver. Josh Allen is a real possibility, too. New York will hope they can trade down but again, I can’t see a team willing to move up this far and sacrifice multiple picks.
4. Raiders – Ed Oliver, DL
I think Oliver is the third best player in the draft behind Williams and Bosa, respectively. I’m not buying the QB hype out of Oakland; I think they’re sticking with Derek Carr and are hoping a QB-desperate team makes a trade up to take one.
Coach Jon Gruden has been linked to QBs before in his career but has never taken one in the first round. Keep in mind that the Raiders have two other first round picks to satisfy need. This selection is BPA while also aiding Oakland’s poor pass rush.
5. Buccaneers – Devin White, LB
In my opinion, this begins the second tier of players. I’m sure Tampa Bay would love for Oliver to slip and they’ll undoubtedly consider Josh Allen. White has been heavily linked to the Bucs, though a potential small trade down would likely turn Tampa Bay’s eyes to an offensive lineman.
The first five picks will almost assuredly consist of these five players.
6. Giants – Josh Allen, EDGE
This, my friends, is where the draft really begins. The Giants will likely leave the first round with a QB and an edge rusher, it just depends on the order. If Murray slips, maybe the Giants jump up to snag him. After all, General Manager and New York’s Least Favorite Person (not including James Dolan) Dave Gettleman likes to trade up in the draft.
For what it’s worth, he’s never traded down in the first round either. Despite New York’s reported affinity for QB Daniel Jones, Allen’s talent is too good to pass up in a position where the Giants lack talent. Besides, I think they’ll get there QB soon.
7. Jaguars – Jonah Williams, OL
For the longest time, I had OT Jawaan Taylor penned in here. Now, I think Taylor could slide a bit. The Jaguars need help on offense, especially after signing QB Nick Foles in the offseason.
TE T.J. Hockenson is a possibility and would make sense considering VP of Football Ops Tom Coughlin’s track record with them. Hockenson is better, but the versatile Williams should be the pick.
8. TRADE: Redskins (Via Lions) – Dwayne Haskins, QB
Finally! In the past three drafts, all QBs but one (Baker Mayfield at one last year) were drafted by a team that traded up to get them. This year will be no different. I thought Washington would be a Daniel Jones Fan Club but it seems like Haskins is getting more love there.
Reports say owner Daniel Snyder has taken complete control of the team’s draft board and last time that happened, the Redskins sold the farm to go up and draft Robert Griffin III.
In Detroit, they’re one of the many teams hoping to move down the board. If you’re not a fan of trades, then this year’s draft isn’t for you. If they stay, they’ll have a pick at Jawaan Taylor, T.J. Hockenson, Brian Burns, Rashan Gary and Montez Sweat.
I wouldn’t bet on it, but I’d like Hockenson’s chances of the bunch.
9. TRADE: Giants (Via Bills) – Daniel Jones, QB
Here Lies the New York Giants Fanbase. Cause of Death: Over-drafting Daniel Jones. Surprise, but I do not like Daniel Jones. Maybe sitting behind Eli Manning will help him, but I’m dubious.
As for the logistics behind this, remember that the Giants’ GM likes to trade up and that teams will basically always trade up for a first-round QB. Not to mention that Daniel Jones was coached in college by the same guys who coached the Manning Bros. Why that matters so much, I couldn’t tell you.
As for the Bills, it’s no secret they want to trade down, per history and their own GM, Brandon Beane. They could just stay at eight and take Christian Wilkins, Jawaan Taylor or T.J. Hockenson. My money would be on Wilkins.
10. Broncos – Devin Bush, LB
This isn’t that hard of a projection. Bush has been linked to Denver ever since their starting LB, Brandon Marshall, bolted to Oakland. T.J. Hockenson is possible here and would be a good pick, too. A bad pick here would be a QB, and I think GM John Elway knows it as well.
They can get a top talent at a position of need or reach for a QB who might not even start (let alone actually play well). However, it’s a weird time in the NFL where QB-needy teams have double-dipped in the position in recent years. Denver could easily become the next team to do it after trading for a “prime” Joe Flacco, as Elway said about Flacco.
They’ll draft a QB this year, just not at 10.
11. Bengals – Andre Dillard, OT
Another team linked to a QB, Dillard has also had heavy connections to Cincinnati. Drew Lock would be a great fit for new coach Zac Taylor’s offense but I think they’d rather build around Andy Dalton first, even if he is remarkably average. Something to note: the Bengals have eleven draft picks thanks to a whopping five sixth-round picks. If they want to move up and draft a QB, they have the ammo. Something else to note: They had one pre-draft visit with a QB. Either they know everything about the QB prospects or they just aren’t interested. The latter is the likely reason.
12. Packers – T.J. Hockenson, TE
I hated making this pick. I have a very small clue about what Green Bay will do, and I’m not alone. This pick could be a number of guys along the offensive and defensive line.
I don’t think Green Bay wants to waste an early pick on a WR, but Hockenson is a top-seven player in the draft and provides value as a blocker. The dual-threat ability is why I passed on Jawaan taylor, who I seriously considered here.
Brian Burns has popped up a little bit here and I’m sure the Packers would consider Devin Bush if he were to be available. A trade back is also in the realm of possibilities. Hockenson is the last player of the top tier of players to be selected and consists of the top six players selected, excluding Murray.
13. Dolphins – Jawaan Taylor, OT
This is my mock draft and yet, I’m shocked. It wasn’t until about an hour ago that I heard Taylor could slide due to medical concerns, though that seems like late smoke from a desperate team. I also am on record as saying that the Dolphins WILL NOT draft at 13.
They won’t trade up and barring an unforeseen, immaculate slide by Kyler Murray, they won’t draft a QB tonight, either. Miami loves Christian Wilkins so it’s really only him and Taylor that cause the Dolphins to stand pat. If Miami trades down, they’ll hope Wilkins is still there (he won’t make it past Atlanta) or they’ll take a defensive lineman like Jeffery Simmons, Brian Burns or Montez Sweat.
Here’s what the Dolphins will do here in order of likelihood with percent chances it happens: Trade down (75), Taylor (15), Wilkins (8), other (2).
14. Falcons – Christian Wilkins, DL
Atlanta is reportedly enamored with Wilkins and it’s not hard to see why. His leadership and versatility is exactly what coach Dan Quinn craves. If Jonah Williams slides down, I can see the Falcons pouncing on him as well. Montez Sweat has been linked to Atlanta as well for probably the same reasons as Wilkins.
If Taylor makes it past Miami, then he could be picked here, too. A dark-horse name to watch: OL Cody Ford. I know I threw a bunch of scenarios at you, but this selection isn’t a difficult one to predict, especially if Wilkins is on the board.
I’d be shocked if he’s not a Dolphin or a Falcon tomorrow morning. This is also where I see the draft board starting to thin out a little of talent. Any person drafted from 15-to-32 could legitimately go anywhere in the first round.
15. TRADE: Lions (Pick from Redskins) – Montez Sweat, DL
As I mentioned earlier, the Lions want to move down. The team’s GM, President and Head Coach are all from the Patriots which means they’ll likely eye a versatile defensive lineman, a versatile offensive lineman or a versatile tight end.
Sweat might be viewed as the best of those options left. Other candidates here could be Rashan Gary and Brian Burns. In the slim chance that Washington stays at 15, they’ll either take a QB or could take the first WR. D.K. Metcalf, maybe?
Honestly, the chances that the Redskins don’t take a QB in the first round are looking as low as the Browns’ chances at taking one. (A.k.a it’s probably not happening!)
16. Panthers – Brian Burns, EDGE
OL Cody Ford is certainly in play here, but Burns fills a massive need for Carolina and has constantly been linked to the team. The Panthers will likely draft a lineman here, it’s just a matter of what side of the ball he plays on.
If the Bengals don’t draft Andre Dillard, I could see the Panthers selecting him. While there isn’t much guess at to what positions the Panthers will target here, I should point out that as the first round moves on, there will be more and more players with the possibility of being picked.
It’s a relatively deep draft in that a guy taken at 16 can be taken 30 picks later and no one would question it, though I believe this is Burns’ floor.
17. TRADE: Texans (Trade with Bills via Giants) – Cody Ford, OL
Do you hear that sound? That’s the sound of the alarm signaling the beginning of trading season. Rumored to be eyeing a move up, the Texans kick things off by finally, finally adding an offensive lineman. Ford’s versatility and experience with the quick Kyler Murray should make the Houston front office to salivate.
I’ve seen some reports saying to watch out for a CB with Houston’s first-round pick but I think everyone knows how desperate the Texans are for an offensive lineman. They’ll load up on the position in a deep OL class.
As for the Bills, sure, they won’t mind stockpiling picks (for this year and next year’s draft) but again, they might just want to stay at nine.
18. Vikings – Garrett Bradbury, C
I really like this pick. Bradbury helping Minnesota’s woeful offensive line seems destined to happen. There are few things I’m sure on in this draft, but the Vikings going with an OL in the first round looks written in stone.
I hear they like Cody Ford as well, which might be why the Texans could jump them. As the realistic player pool starts to expand, I’ll start saying less because there’s no chance I can cover all possibilities.
19. Titans – Clelin Ferrell, EDGE
I expect Tennessee to take a Clemson defensive lineman tonight. It’ll be either Ferrell or DL Dexter Lawrence. Yes, there’s a few other candidates but I think the Titans look to bolster their defensive line.
I’ve seen some flashier selections like QB and WR, though I don’t think the current options on the Titans’ roster aren’t bad (they’re not great, though).
20. Steelers – Rock Ya-Sin, CB
I’m not a fan of this pick. Unfortunately for Steelers’ fans, this connection has spread like wildfire the past day or so. It could be another casualty of Lying Season, though it doesn’t make some sense.
The needs another CB and Ya-Sin’s size and athleticism fits the team’s desires. They’ve done a ton of pre-draft work on defense, so that will likely be the focus tonight.
An offensive tackle to replace Marcus Gilbert isn’t out of the question. I’ve also heard rumblings that they could trade up and aim for a LB like Devin Bush. However, I just can’t see GM Kevin Colbert moving up.
The last time Pittsburgh traded up in the first round? 2003 when they selected some guy named Troy Polamalu.
21. TRADE: Eagles (Trade with Seahawks) – Jeffery Simmons, DL
Things are about to heat up. GM Howie Roseman hasn’t been shy about making draft-day deals before. Simmons could be a top-ten pick if he didn’t tear his ACL in February.
I couldn’t decide on this pick between Simmons or Marquise Brown. That’s really the only two people I believe will be considered by the Eagles tonight, though they’ll probably look at other defensive linemen, too. With only five picks, no team wants to trade down more than the Seahawks.
Even if it is only a four-spot jump, Simmons’ talent and Seattle’s desperation is too enticing to ignore.
22. TRADE: Broncos (Trade with Ravens) – Drew Lock, QB
You think GM John Elway would have learned his lesson about trading into the first round for a QB by now. If Seattle is the most desperate team to move down, then Baltimore is the second-most desperate.
Neither team has a second-round pick, by the way. Back to the Broncos who would theoretically jump up from the ninth pick in the second round, they have the draft capital to pull it off. Call it a hunch, but Lock feels destined to be a Bronco.
Even more so, I truly believe a team will trade up to take Lock in the second-half of the first round. It could be a surprise team to do it, and I think Denver knows that, hence a massive move up to grab their supposed QB of the future.
Keep an eye on a wildcard team to snag Lock, though.
23. TRADE: Bills (Trade with Texans via Giants) – Kaleb McGary, OL
I had a tough time with this pick, mainly because I project Buffalo to trade down twice. The Bills added multiple offensive linemen in free agency so maybe that nulls this potential pick. Just kidding, anything is possible in the NFL Draft.
McGary wasn’t a common name in most mock drafts but I’ve seen some potential late-round buzz circling him. Out of all the picks I made this mock draft, this is one was my biggest guess.
24. Raiders – Josh Jacobs, RB
Out of all the picks I made in this mock draft, this pick was one of my most confident ones. How about that for a 180? It just shows how big of a roller coaster the NFL Draft is. Jacobs to Oakland seems too easy, especially after the retirement (again) of Marshawn Lynch. Jacobs is the only RB I expect to be taken in the first round, if any are even taken tonight.
25. TRADE: Seahawks (Pick From Eagles) – Rashan Gary, DL
I originally had a safety slotted here, like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson or Juan Thornhill, but I’m feeling a lineman. Gary’s versatility and athleticism screams Seattle. The Seahawks have too many weak spots on the roster to not consider trading out of the first round and their original pick at 21 could be a prime spot for a team to jump up and snag a QB. If Philadelphia stays here, I still think it’ll be Jeffery Simmons or Marquise Brown.
26. TRADE: Patriots (Trade With Colts) – Jerry Tillery, DL
I have no clue what Indianapolis will do. I can tell what they won’t do: Draft a RB or WR. I also thing a CB is highly unlikely despite recent speculation. GM Chris Ballard loves building the trenches, a.k.a the offensive and defensive lines.
I think he’d rather add to his draft capital and get his guy at 32 then take him or Dexter Lawrence here. On the other side, did you new England has 12 draft picks? That’s scary. They need a ton of help at WR and could take one considering they took another offensive skill position (RB Sony Michel) in the first round last year.
Tillery’s name has been floated out with New England for awhile now as the quintessential Patriot. Could Bill Belichick fall in love with a QB prospects tonight? Like I said, I’m in the dark with these two teams.
By the way, they’ve done trades together before so this move wouldn’t be testing any enemy lines or anything.
27. Raiders – Noah Fant, TE
Considering how easy it was to mock all three of Oakland’s picks, I can see why GM Mike Mayock and coach Jon Gruden sent their entire scouting staff home last weekend. Fant fills a whole by the recently departed Jared Cooks.
Fant’s collegiate teammate, T.J. Hockenson, is a lock to be taken in the first 15 picks tonight while Fant should still be a first-rounder.
I don’t expect more than two to be drafted tonight, though Irv Smith Jr has a compelling case. Positional value is what prevents these three prospects from hearing their names called earlier.
28. Chargers – Dexter Lawrence, DT
Would you believe me if I said I had a vision of Lawrence in a Chargers’ uniform? The predictions with the Chargers’ pick are all over the place but Lawrence seems to have a leg up on the competition. I’m not buying that the team takes a CB nor a QB tonight, though Los Angeles is well-rounded enough to go BPA. In this case, that’s also Lawrence.
29. TRADE: Raiders (Trade With Seahawks) – Byron Murphy, CB
I love this pick, and not just because Seattle recoups some more picks by leaving the first round. Oakland needs a second CB opposite Gareon Conley and they have the draft capital to make a move like this.
Some people might point to a QB here, but there’s no one worth spending a first-round pick on. If the Seahawks stand pat, a safety could be in the cards. I expect them to at least address defensive line, secondary or both tonight.
30. TRADE: Bills (Trade With Packers) – D.K. Metcalf, WR
Pop the champagne, there goes a WR! I’ve seen reports and mock drafts slotting Metcalf as high as the second pick, but here he becomes the first WR off the board thanks to the pick-heavy Bills kicking the Packers out of the first round.
I’ve mentioned the Bills’ tendency to trade, right? As for Green Bay, this could be anywhere from a CB to an OL. I can promise you this: They’re NOT drafting a QB tonight.
31. Rams – Chris Lindstrom, OL
Amidst the fun frenzy of the first-round, this pick is boring. Nonetheless, it is a good pick. The versatile, well-rounded Lindstrom can help a suddenly worn-out offensive line. If the Rams surprisingly don’t take an offensive lineman tonight, they’ll probably take a DL to replace Ndamukong Suh. This pick could also be a hotbed for trade calls.
32. TRADE: Colts (Pick From Patriots) – Charles Omenihu, DL
I don’t think the Colts would want to trade down again, considering they might want to stand pat at 26 anyways. This is another selection where I just have a feeling about it. I also believe the Colts will look long and hard at Jeffery Simmons and Dexter Lawrence, if they’re available. I hear safety as a possibility, too.
Quick Notes for the Rest of the Draft
- Dolphins will look to stack up their lines
- WRs should go fast and early on Day Two
- Ravens love Marquise Brown
- Redskins reportedly crave an edge rusher
- Browns, Cowboys, Bears, Saints and Chiefs could easily all trade back into the first round
- Chiefs’ first selection will likely be a CB
- Teams likely drafting a QB outside Round One: Patriots, Raiders, Dolphins, Panthers, Buccaneers
- Jachai Polite could fall to the third round
Thanks again and enjoy the greatest night of the year!
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