Ah, it’s the most wonderful time of the year for degenerate gamblers. Seriously, this our Christmas. Everything is there: spending lots of money, potentially receiving something you’ll cherish for a week or two, a party where someone always gets way too intoxicated, people donning ugly sweaters (aka the teams not in the Super Bowl; please don’t be that guy), you got it all.
In this edition of the Super Bowl, once again, the ageless model quarterback Tom Brady, the football Grinch (another Christmas reference) Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots are back for ring number six against the new kids on the block, the Los Angeles Rams. If you’re looking for this article to provide you with a team to bet on in the big game, it’s not happening. I’m shook.
The overwhelming amount of public money on the Patriots makes me want to side with the always profitable casinos and take the Rams, but the line is stuck at -2.5 and I refuse to touch it. If the spread hits Rams +3, I would buy the extra half of a point and take that on a small amount.
But where most of my money will go is to the ever-glorious Super Bowl prop bets. I fell in love with the National Anthem bet after heavily researching Lady Gaga and her sing time, then proceeding to place a hefty wager on the over. Timer in hand, Gaga nailed the “land of the free” high note, but I needed a 13 second “home of the brave”. The bet felt cooked, but Gaga shocked the world and pulled off a triple “brave!” to end her anthem and the over hit.
Instead of tossing big bucks on the Rams or Patriots, I’m going to spread the wealth and toss small to medium sums (ranked chilly to boiling) on prop bets, starting with everyone’s favorite, the coin toss.
Prop Bet 1: Coin Toss
The Patriots are the away team and are calling the shots. Sorry “tails never fails” crew, they’re going with heads, winning the toss and deferring to the 2nd half. The Patriot way.
BET: Heads, -105 (room temp)
Prop Bet 2: National Anthem
Superstar singer and Atlanta’s very own Gladys Knight will be performing this year’s national anthem. The “Empress of Soul” is back in her hometown and had this to say about singing the anthem in Atlanta at the Super Bowl:
The hometown connection along with her extraordinary vocals in the R&B and Gospel genres tells you everything. The over is the way to go. Gladys should soak in this moment in front of Atlanta, and the world, and belt out a long-winded anthem.
BET: OVER 1 minute 50 seconds, +110 (boiling)
Prop Bet 3: Double Result
This has been a staple in my Super Bowl betting diet. Will it be tied at halftime with the favorite winning in the end, or will the underdog come out with all of their tricks, only to see their hopes gashed in the final seconds? I think the latter has more significance here with young Sean McVay trying to out-coach Bill Belichick. I think the start of the game will be much slower as each team feels one another out. Then McVay will start to pull out some magic tricks from of his play sheet a bit earlier than he wanted to if an opportunity strikes.
BET: Rams Halftime/Patriots Full Time, +350 (room temp)
Prop Bet 4: Jared Goff Pass Attempts
The Patriots like to take away the opposing team’s best weapon. Okay, so exactly who is that for the Rams right now? Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods? Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson? I think Belichick puts an emphasis on run stopping and McVay will counter with a heavy pass attack.
BET: Jared Goff OVER 38.5 Pass Attempts, -115 (warm)
Prop Bet 5: Will CJ Anderson score a 1st Half TD?
CJ Anderson clearly holds the title of goal-line back for the Rams so it seems like they just need to get inside the 5-yard line for this to be a possibility. The “Shortest Touchdown” prop is listed at over/under 1.5 yards. Anderson is listed as a generous 225 pounds, so I think he is able to plow his way into the endzone, hopefully before halftime to also help my double result bet.
BET: CJ Anderson Scores TD in 1H, +300 (warm)
Prop Bet 6: Tyler Higbee Receptions and Receiving Yards
Continuing with the mantra that Belichick takes away the other team’s best weapons, I’m going to hit up Rams tight end Tyler Higbee with some love. If Belichick’s goal is to stop the run and make Goff uncomfortable, Higbee could be Goff’s security blanket.
BET: Tyler Higbee OVER 2.0 Receptions, -120 (hot)
BET: Tyler Higbee OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards, -120 (hot)
Prop Bet 7: Ndamukong Suh Total Tackles
The Patriots are going to double Aaron Donald at all costs. Suh was put on notice in the NFC Championship game with a terrific performance with Donald drawing all of the offensive linemen’s attention. With Josh McDaniels’ recent propensity to run the ball heavily, I like Suh’s chances to pick up a couple of run stuffs and maybe a sack.
BET: Ndamukong Suh OVER 3.5 Total Tackles, -130 (boiling)
Prop Bet 8: James White Longest Reception
James White is simply a Super Bowl hero. I want to bet on more of his props, but they are overvalued in my opinion. Total receptions at 6 with a -160 tag? No thanks. Total receiving yards over 52.5 at -130? I might consider that one down the road, but still good (which means I am definitely throwing a last-second, small-money wager). But the prop I think has the most value is that one of White’s receptions goes for over 15.5 yards.
BET: James White OVER 15.5 Yards Longest Reception, -115 (hot)
Prop Bet 10: Julian Edelman Receiving Yards
The Rams had trouble stopping any team’s number one receiving target, let alone a slot guy. Similar to James White, Brady is going to look Julian Edelman’s way whenever he is in a jam. Because the Patriots spread the ball around so much and their gameplan is too unpredictable week-to-week, I think Edelman’s total receiving yards is the play rather than the over on his receptions (7.5 with even odds).
BET: Julian Edelman OVER 82.5 Receiving Yards, -115
Prop Bet 11: Stephon Gilmore INT
These are where the bets get a little funky, and I’m just looking for a sweet payout on a small wager. Which quarterback do you think is more prone to an interception? I think most would say Jared Goff, so I’m going with the best cornerback on the other team to pick him off
BET: Stephon Gilmore INT, +437 (chilly)
Prop Bet 12: Player to score the Patriots 1st TD
The Rams defense gave up the 3rd most receiving yards to tight ends this season, and I think Gronk is going to be a huge factor in potentially his final NFL game. He is still a dominant red zone target as he proved on several crucial occasions in the AFC Championship game. A quick slant inside the 15-yard line with Gronk’s massive frame shielding a defender is virtually unstoppable.
BET: Gronk Scores Pats 1st TD, +500 (chilly)
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