For most of you who have been following along with the combimetrics articles, a new concept was added under its’ umbrella recently entitled Magnum Octad Enumerate (MOE). The purpose of MOE is to demonstrate to baseball fans and clubs alike that a great bullpen cannot carry a team on it’s own.

Speaking of the fact that bullpens are unable to carry a club to a World Championship by themselves, baseball needs another way to evaluate a clubs’ level of dominance. A way to do this is through the aforementioned MOE, which combines starter and offensive ability. So how will I do this?

There will be a bit of complexity to this, however the first aspect of MOE will be a teams’ Magnum Start ability. The intriguing part about it is that I will be analyzing staring staffs by how they perform against different levels of competition. They will be split up into thirds, by the level of offense you are facing in your league. For example, you would be rewarded more for facing a middle third offense than if you faced a bottom third one. Get the point?

Even though this may be a bit confusing, due to the fact that clubs begin the season all over the map and often move up and down. That is because the formula aspect of MOE will only be used after the regular season is complete. I am doing it this way so clubs do not get bumped up or down during the turbulent 162-game season.

So what is the formula? Here it is!

Each individual pitcher will be evaluated on his own Magnum Start Value (MSV) scores (not from the MSV formula) and then added together with his teammates. Here are how the hurlers scores are tallied.

Versus Bottom Third Offense

7 to 7.2 IP

1.012

8 to 8.2 IP

1.324

9 IP/Complete Game

1.765

Versus Middle Third Offense 

7 to 7.2 IP

2.123

8 to 8.2 IP

2.638 

9 IP/Complete Game 

3.476

Top Third Offense

7 to 7.2 IP

4.246

8 to 8.2 IP

5.849

9 IP/Complete Game

6.358

There are also “add on” games in regards to MOE. If a pitcher is to throw three straight Magnum Starts, you are to multiply 1.9021. In the scenario he tosses six or nine in a row, multiply 2.348 or 3.687, respectively.

While this is doubtful, if a starter fires twelve or fifteen MS consecutively, multiply the total score by itself or itself twice (from the MOE formula) in either scenario. Only do this one time in the case that it occurs, as in the situation that starter hurls fifteen you should not do it five times. In other words, you add the numbers, then multiply by whatever MOE dictates.

Now that we have discussed that, it is time to move to offense. There are going to be three categories I am going to use, that being runs, home runs, and batting average. The reason they are most important is simple: touching home plate is how you score, home runs is the new trend, and batting average is a way to offset a power-laden club who can’t score any other way than the long ball.

I will evaluate this in a similar manner as I did with pitching. The teams will be divided up into thirds by where they stand in their respective leagues – top, middle, and bottom third. On top of that, this aspect of MOE will not be added into the first portion of the formula but will be placed next to it. Here is how it would look.

Pitching score/offensive score

The score will come from a simple formula, which is here:

Finish in the top third of team runs/home runs/batting average: five points

If a team finishes in the top two, add two points to their score.

Finish in the middle third of team runs/home runs/batting average: three points

Finish in the bottom third of team runs/home runs/batting average: two points

If a team finishes in the bottom two, subtract one point from their score.

One thing that needs to be made clear is that you are evaluating teams here, not individual players. No multiplication, just add the scores together the way you did before. Then put the offensive total next to the pitching score.

My reasoning for keeping the totals separate is simple, they are different phases of the game, and it is also difficult to make them equal because some teams are so much better in one area or another.

Prior to putting a bow on this article, what I want to emphasize is that these are the two most important phases of MLB. Given defense should be included in there, but plenty of clubs have reached the postseason on the backs of a great offense and even better starting pitching.

One more aspect I would like to add is that you can also divide MOE into months if you so choose (if current season, entire month must be complete). Going a step further in regards to months, you multiply by six if you want a comparison to a full year (March/April and September/October are one month in MOE). 

All in all, I may have to alter MOE several times before getting a better read on if it can work. So don’t be shocked if this formula isn’t the final one for MOE, as I will be doing a few studies over the course of the 2019 MLB season (not all on ’19). In other words, enjoy the process. And expect it to take a while. 

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Texas A&M Former Student. Huge sports fan who hates stereotypical pink jerseys and the thought that women and sports don\'t mix, Interested in sports banter and complaining about how Dallas sports consistently underachieve at everything? Hit me up on Twitter @shelbae_nichole. Thanks, Gig Em, and God Bless y’all.
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Texas A&M Former Student. Huge sports fan who hates stereotypical pink jerseys and the thought that women and sports don\'t mix, Interested in sports banter and complaining about how Dallas sports consistently underachieve at everything? Hit me up on Twitter @shelbae_nichole. Thanks, Gig Em, and God Bless y’all.

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